Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Nice Weather Continues Sunday Warmer More Humid Into Next Week

Nice Weather Continues Sunday Warmer More Humid Into Next Week

We are 2 for 2 with a lovely Saturday that followed up a lovely Friday. The day is winding down and it looks as if we should be able to extend the nice weather into the beginning of next week. It also will come with a warmer and somewhat more humid flow from the west southwest. Other than some patchy clouds around on the satellite we should be left with partly to mostly clear skies tonight.

SATELLITE

storm free

Radars are nice and quiet and it looks like we won’t see much if any rain until late Wednesday. We do have a warm front passing to our north Sunday so places well up into Upstate NY could see some showers and thunderstorms around during the day and at night. Mainly this will occur along and south of I-90 down to Northern Pennsylvania and east north of Route 84. This leaves everyone else in warmer and more humid conditions Sunday with highs reaching the low and middle 80s.

The high to the south of us is not the strongest of highs especially aloft and there is a rather weak back door front that drops down Monday but doesn’t make it south of NYC until sometime Monday night. Dew points will rise to the low and mid 60s Sunday and Monday and upper 60s and lower 70s Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Meanwhile with sunshine Monday highs will be in the very warm to hot mid 80s to near 90.

The weak backdoor could produce a shower or thunderstorm in one or two spots along the boundary later Monday night but it really will be about wind direction with an onshore wind Tuesday keeping Southern New England, the Hudson Valley and Long Island in the 70s to near 80 while areas from Southern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey southward will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. We will have sunshine both days and I am not including any mention of a thunderstorm for Tuesday or Tuesday night a this time, though the dew points are going to be on the high side so if a pop up storm develops it wouldn’t shock me.

Wednesday is going to be very warm to hot and it is also going to be very humid . We have another cold front that will be dropping southward and this one will be a bit stronger than Monday night’s back door front. Highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90. There is the chance for thunderstorms late in the day and into the evening and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some severe weather risk as part of this equation.

As for the late week and into next week right now there is some uncertainty. There is a tropical system that is likely to come out of the Southwest Gulf early next week and the National Hurricane Center has this at an 80 percent chance of developing. That could wind up straddling up the Western Gulf Coast though this is by no means a certainty at this point. Also part of the uncertainty is another tropical wave passing north of the Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and heading for the Bahamas. We have seen the GFS amplify this into a tropical storm for several model runs in a row but other than hints, other models don’t seem to be doing much with this. We should clarify here that when it comes to tropical systems in the middle range part of the forecast, and even in the short range, seem to have trouble developing systems this season or not developing enough. Occasionally we have seen some models throw up phantom hurricanes only to have them disappear. It is better to focus on the upper air conditions and in both cases, conditions look like they could be conducive for some development. For now we will leave the late week part of the forecast unsettled for the moment though if I had to put myself on the line right now, Thursday and Friday look fine and that any issues would come next weekend if something comes of this. If this Southwest Atlantic system does develop into something it would probably move up the coast given the way the upper air sets up. Since we have seen three storms do this over the summer so when the trend is your friend, the odds of a fourth do go up. For now though we will be Switzerland on this.

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