Severe Weather Risk Late Today Tonight Weekend Saturday Better Than Sunday
The Storm Prediction Center did a little bit of adjusting regarding the “enhanced” risk area by nudging it a little further north. It covers the area from extreme Northeast Pennsylvania across Upstate NY and into West Central New England. The slight and marginal risk areas remain virtually unchanged with the slight risk south to NYC and the marginal risk line just north of Philadelphia.
To put the risk in perspective, the map above shows the percent chance of experiencing damaging winds inside a 25 mile radius of any point. 30 percent chance is actually a rather robust number. Tornado risk in the enhanced area is about 5% and doesn’t extend south into the slight risk zone.
The HRRR model shows a line of strong storms forming across Upstate NY but the timing means that thunderstorms with the line reach their peak intensity this evening and long before the line reaches the coast overnight. Southern areas of the risk zone will be looking at scattered thunderstorms that form well ahead of the main line and whether those storms become severe. The best chances for widespread thunderstorm activity will be north and west of Route 84.
The warm front is moving northward this morning and we had some showers overnight. We should see sunshine ripping through the clouds and that will set us up for highs reaching the upper 70s to middle 80s. A west wind will keep the sea breeze at bay except right along the immediate coast.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Once the storms are done tonight we will have leftover clouds giving way to some late night clearing. The outlook for the weekend remains the same. Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days and should start with some sunshine. The problem for Saturday is tonight’s cold front stalls to the south from Delaware west into and across Virginia. A bit of an onshore flow starts to set up bringing some clouds especially south of NYC. North of NYC we could see more sunshine and less cloud cover. Most highs Saturday will be in the 60s to near 70.
Sunday the warm front starts tracking northward with an increasing southeast flow. That means more clouds and there could be a passing scattered shower during the day Sunday. Most highs will be in the 60s. Low pressure heads to the Ohio Valley while a subtropical system that develops off the Florida coast heads northeastward over the next several days.
The outlook for Monday and Tuesday is a bit dicey and hard to figure with the onshore flow. That flow actually strengthens on Tuesday with the subtropical storm to the east and low pressure that drops southeastward from Ohio into the Carolinas. Monday it seems rain will be mostly across New England while we could see rain furthersouth later Monday into Monday night and Tuesday. With the winds from the east, Highs Monday and Tuesday will just be in the 50s and some places may not get out of the 40s. Coastal flooding will be an issue as well with the long easterly fetch. Some drying could occur Tuesday night and Wednesday as moisture is forced southward but clouds will still remain. With the upper low still sitting in the Southeast US, some rain could come back late in the week. With regards to the subtropical system off the Florida east coast, we will update that separately later today.