Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Tropical Storm Elsa Landfalling, Warnings Watches Extended Northward Up East Coast

Tropical Storm Elsa Landfalling, Warnings Watches Extended Northward Up East Coast

 

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Weather in 5/Joe & Joe Weather Show Latest Podcast

Tropical Storm Elsa Landfalling, Warnings Watches Extended Northward Up East Coast

…CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE
NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…29.9N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued.

The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the
Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa is landfalling this morning along the Florida coastal bend with max winds of 65 mph. We have watched the strength of Elsa ebb and flow briefly returning to hurricane status last night for a short time before coming back a bit under this morning. Whether it is a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane the difference is rather small. Movement is to the north and it seems that Elsa is taking a slightly more westward track overall and taking a little longer to make landfall. This slight westward jog makes a difference longer term as Elsa will head northeast and up the East Coast for Thursday and Friday.

SATELLITE

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Satellite and radar loops are showing heavy rains moving inland and the core of Elsa in terms of the center is showing up well on the Talahassee radar. Heavy rains cover most of North Florida and Southern Georgia. That rain shield should start turning northeastward later today.

TALAHASSEE FL WEATHER RADAR

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Let’s  move forward and take a look at what we can expect over the next few days. First off the biggest risk from Elsa as it moves up the East Coast will be rain. In the area from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England the thunderstorms of yesterday and today plus a saturated ground raises the risk for flash flooding. WPC reflects that in their forecast for a “slight” risk for flash flooding up and down the East Coast with a moderate risk today and tonight in the Southeast US.

During the day Thursday Elsa will be moving northeastward being brought up the coast in response to a trough in the Great Lakes which gently lifts Elsa up as the trough moves east. The European model has a stronger trough in the Great Lakes which is sharper and has a much more identifiable feature representing Elsa.

The European also maintains a stronger Elsa as it heads northeastward and a track just inland of the coast. This model solution would bring a 6 to 8 hour period of heavy rain of up to a couple of inches but it will also bring some strong gusty winds along and to the east of the low track.

This could be an issue for Long Island and Southern New England from a wind standpoint. West of the low track wind will be less of an issue. All other models including the hurricane tracking models are to the right of the European however the new hurricane track models have come back closer to the coast and just to the right of the European model track.

The last forecast from the National Hurricane Center at 5am Wednesday was to the right of most of the model track. If we see Elsa nudging further west before making the turn that could be a very important error of 20 to 30 miles. That could make a difference in terms of what type of weather to expect.

We could go at this all day long and pull every model up but the bottom line at least for now is that is a good bet that we are going to see up to a couple of inches of rain here Thursday night into Friday morning with less north and west of the coast and more south and east.

Whether wind will be an issue and where it will be an issue will depend on how strong Elsa is or isn’t and whether it tracks offshore just to the south and east or if it tracks literally along or just inland of the coast which would mean stronger wind issues particularly along and east of the track. It is a 6 to 8 hour event from start to finish and it will occur somewhere inside the window of Midnight Friday to 12 noon Friday. After it moves out we clean up and head to a warm and humid weekend with just a few scattered thunderstorms in the mix.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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